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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #5574

"British agriculture and diets inside and outside of the European Union"
by Springmann, Marco and Florian Freund


Abstract
Brexit, the British exit from the European Union (EU), is varyingly portrayed as the most disastrous event in a generation, or as a great opportunity to cut EU ‘red tape’ and reform the governance of domains previously regulated by the EU. One such domain likely to be impacted by Brexit is agriculture. Here we analyse the potential impacts of Brexit on national agricultural production, food consumption and the associated dietary health impacts, and economic performance of British agriculture.

We use MAGNET, a global CGE model with country-level detail based on the GTAP9 model and database, to simulate the potential agricultural and economic impacts of Brexit, and we use a comparative risk assessment framework of dietary risks related to food consumption to evaluate the potential impacts of agricultural and dietary changes on chronic-disease mortality. We contrast different Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) with scenarios of agricultural reform that include a restructuring of agricultural support mechanisms away from subsidies on staple crops and animal products towards nutritionally sensitive commodities, such as fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts.

We find that targeted agricultural reforms are economically preferable over ‘accidental’ knock-on effects of the potentially large-scale changes in tariffs structures that could accompany Brexit.




Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2018 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Cartagena, Colombia
Date: 2018
Version:
Created: Springmann, M. (4/15/2018)
Updated: Springmann, M. (10/25/2018)
Visits: 209
- Health
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- European Union


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