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GTAP Resource #5755

"A Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models: An Application for DART"
by Jin, Ding, Sneha Thube, Johannes Ziesmer, Christian Henning and Ruth Delzeit


Abstract
In the recent years the research interests in the field of Computable
General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling has been placed on calibrating the
baseline dynamics to forecasts. This paper suggests the formal method to
calibrate all exogenous parameters of the Dynamic Applied Reional Trade
(DART) model to forecasts from the the World Energy Outlook 2018 report. First, we determine the exogenous parameters (inputs) and forecasts
(outputs) for the calibration procedure. Then we use the metamodeling
method to generate surrogate models for the DART model. In the next
step, we implement the Maximum A Posterior (MAP) method to estimate
the exogenous parameters that are used to calibrate the baseline dynamics.
Finally, we run the simulation with the estimates to test the performance.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2019 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
Date: 2019
Version:
Created: Jin, D. (4/12/2019)
Updated: Jin, D. (4/14/2019)
Visits: 1,826
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation


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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM