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GTAP Resource #6413

"Implication of Climate Driven Supply of Renewable Energy Along the Electrification Pathway Toward Mitigation"
by Yuan, Mei, Karen Tapia-Ahumada and Xiang Gao

The U.S. power sector faces unprecedented changes and challenges over the next decades as it integrates vast amounts of renewables, with unpredictable effects of climate change on intermittent supply, even as patterns of demand are likely to change as broad swaths of the economy electrify. It is estimated that about two trillion dollars of investment will be needed in the sector over the next several decades. Without new model-based tools to better identify robust regional sources and appropriate technologies for deployment, investment dollars may be wasted or the power system subject to blackouts or rolling brownouts if supply and demand cannot be matched. Meeting this challenge requires an integration of the global climate model analysis with the economy and its electric sector. In this study, we use large ensemble of climate projections to an MIT-developed integrated framework that integrates a recursive dynamic multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with an hourly dispatch and capacity expansion electricity model to examine the climate impacts on the electric power system. Our model takes into account the interactions between the supply of the generation sector and load demand by the end-use electrification. We study New York that adopted ambitious decarbonization targets. The preliminary results show that the decarbonization policy induces more electricity price spikes in the summer. Higher rate of electrifying technology adoption leads to more frequent and greater changes in electricity prices in the winter.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2021 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2020
Created: Yuan, M. (4/15/2021)
Updated: Yuan, M. (7/5/2021)
Visits: 680
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate impacts
- Technological change
- Other data bases and data issues
- North America

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