GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Modelling plastics use and waste in a CGE: Methodology and baseline projections to 2060" by Bibas, Ruben, Rob Dellink, Maarten Dubois, Elisa Lanzi, Eleonora Mavroeidi and Daniel Ostale Valriberas Abstract Plastics are one of the most commonplace materials on the planet. In 2015, global plastics production reached 407 Mt, surpassing that of paper (400 Mt) and aluminium (57 Mt). If growth persists at similar rates, plastics production is expected to reach 1600 Mt in 2050 (EMF, 2017). The extraction of materials for plastics production, and the use and disposal of plastic products is creating significant environmental pressure, with consequences for ecosystems and health. This paper presents both the methodology to incorporate flows of plastic use and waste in a CGE model and the ensuing baseline to 2060, created with a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (the OECD ENV-Linkages model). Because the strength of CGE is to detail the drivers of structural change, such as changes in demand patterns, production modes (including increases in recycling activities) and trade specialization, these factors will explain why future demands for plastic do not exactly follow economic growth and population, as naive projections do. This paper builds on modelling methodology developed for material projections of the OECD Global Material Resources Outlook (OECD, 2019). In this perspective, this paper take advantage of the new GTAP10 database split of the “Chemical, rubber, plastic products (crp)” sector into 3 new sectors, including plastic. The objective of the paper is to improve knowledge and projections of the economic drivers of the production and use of plastic to support better policymaking that aims at sustaining economic growth while improving environmental quality. |
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- Advances in quantitative methods - Baseline development - Dynamic modeling |
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Public Access  Presentation (1.6 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
