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GTAP Resource #7006

"Water scarcity, climate change and potential collaboration in water management in the Middle East"
by Taheripour, Farzad, Iman Haqiqi, Alla Golub, Ehsanreza Sajedinia and Omid Karami

The Middle East is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world. The annual average of precipitation in this region is usually very low, less than 200 mm. In the future, this region will face major water scarcity induced by climate change and rapid water demand expansion. Due to climate conditions and the low productivity of rainfed cropping, crop production relies heavily on irrigation in the region. This study assesses economic damages from reduced water supply and evaluate the extent to which potential collaboration among the riparian countries in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and Saq-Ram Aquifer System could help to reduce the negative impacts. Unlike the earlier studies in this area, this research uses a hydrological model based on Water Balance Model (WBM). Also, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (GTAP-BIO-W) to quantify the economic consequences of the future changes in climate conditions. The results vary by climate scenario, projection method, country, and river basin. Under one scenario, the Middle East region is expected to lose $102.7 billion, or 3.11% of GDP, due to intensified water scarcity and changes in crop yields. In this baseline, about 50.4% of the economic damage is expected in Turkey, and 25.5% is in Iran. Therefore, progressive additional investments in water use efficiency and conservation practices are required to limit the economic losses. The projected losses with no collaboration in water management among riparian countries could mount up to 6% of the GDP in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin. With full collaboration, the overall economic losses for the riparian countries in the Tigris-Euphrates river basin could turn into an economic gain of 0.9% (or $13 billion per year) of real GDP under the ensemble RCP4.5 climate. Collaboration among the Tigirs-Euphrates riparian countries also may lead to some gains for other countries in the Middle East.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Karami, O. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Karami, O. (6/12/2023)
Visits: 593
- Dynamic modeling
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Environmental policies
- Trade and the environment
- Water availability
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Agricultural policies
- Domestic policy analysis
- Middle East

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Comments (2 posted)
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Posted by: Karami, Omid   4/15/2023 2:51:00 PM
Please see the paper titled "Water scarcity, climate change and potential collaboration in water management in the Middle East". Please let me know if there is any concern or comment. It is possible to edit this version, since it is not the final draft.

Posted by: Karami, Omid   6/12/2023 4:45:00 AM
The revised version has been uploaded.