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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #7160

"Climate changes and tourism: an estimate of the impact on the economy of Salvador, a Brazilian municipality"
by Souza, Gessica, Thiago Lopes, Valentina Tridello and Carolina Spinola


Abstract
The present study aimed to project the economic impacts of climate change on tourist activity in Salvador, a municipality in the state of Bahia in Brazil. To this end, an inter-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with recursive dynamics was used, the model developed for the analysis of the Brazilian economy and regionalized exclusively for the purposes of this research, whose theoretical structure follows the TERM model developed by the Center of Policy Studies in Australia, which was called TERM - Salvador. The simulations were translated as a decrease in demand for tourist services (tourist flow x tourist spending), through climate impact chains built based on the theoretical framework contained in the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC and the Risk Supplement to Vulnerability Sourcebook from the German International Cooperation Agency for Sustainable Development (GIZ). Two scenarios were simulated regarding the existence or not of adaptive capabilities at the destination, for the time horizons of 2030, 2050 and 2100. In both cases and in all projected years, the losses verified are significant, reaching R$3 billion in the year 2030, R$11 billion in 2050 and R$40 billion in 2100


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2023
Version:
Created: Souza, G. (4/8/2024)
Updated: Souza, G. (4/8/2024)
Visits: 32
- Climate impacts
- Environmental policies
- Sustainable development
- Other data bases and data issues
- Economic growth
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Dynamic modeling
- Model extension/development
- South America


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