GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7553 |
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"Quantifying the Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather Events in Morocco Under Uncertainty: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach" by Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara Abstract Morocco, identified as a "climate hotspot" by the World Bank, has experienced significant warming and unpredictable precipitation patterns since the 1960s, increasing the severity of droughts and floods. These climate changes have caused substantial human and economic losses, particularly affecting the agricultural sector, a critical component of Morocco's economy. The primary aim of this research is to quantify the economic impacts of extreme weather events (droughts and floods) in Morocco, considering climate uncertainties. A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to Morocco's economy is employed, leveraging updated 2019 input-output data and climate projections from five CMIP6 models under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This methodological approach ensures an extensive representation of potential climatic futures. A parametric model based on climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture is developed to evaluate their effects on crop yields. To handle climate uncertainty, the study utilizes Monte Carlo simulations, generating numerous potential climate scenarios. These scenarios are integrated into the CGE model, allowing robust assessments of macroeconomic and sector-specific impacts. The analysis covers a range of scenarios, including deterministic baselines, increased frequency and severity of extreme events, and capital losses due to infrastructure damage. By repeatedly applying the CGE model, the research derives statistical measures (mean and standard deviation) of crucial economic indicators like GDP, sectoral productivity, and household welfare. The study's outcomes are crucial for policymakers, emphasizing the vulnerability of Morocco’s agriculture and broader economy to climate fluctuations. It advocates adaptive strategies and comprehensive climate-economic policies to bolster resilience. |
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- Climate impacts - Africa (North) |
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Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
