GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7678 |
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"Afforestation and Its Limits: Integrating Soil Carbon and Biochar in Land-Based CDR Portfolios " by Kamasela, Dianti Farhana, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa and Saritha Vishwanathan Abstract Limiting global warming in line with the goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report requires not only rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but also large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, cumulative CDR requirements range from approximately 190 to more than 400 GtCO2 over the twenty-first century depending on the speed of emission reductions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) show that land-based CDR options, particularly afforestation and reforestation, play a dominant role in mitigation portfolios due to their relatively low cost and technological readiness. However, large-scale afforestation raises sustainability concerns because it may compete with agricultural land and threaten biodiversity-rich ecosystems. This study evaluates whether afforestation alone can meet long-term CDR requirements and assesses how soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and biochar can complement afforestation. We estimate afforestation potential considering biodiversity-protected areas and unused land until 2100, with plantation rates aligned with the Global Forest Target (25 Mha yr?¹). The results show that afforestation alone may be insufficient to meet CDR requirements, delivering approximately 180 GtCO2 of cumulative carbon sequestration by 2100. Soil organic carbon sequestration contributes approximately 139 GtCO2 and biochar about 149 GtCO2 by 2100. When these three CDR options are combined, total carbon removal reaches approximately 6–8 GtCO2 yr?¹ throughout the century, corresponding to cumulative removals of about 480 GtCO2 by 2100. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Land use - Model extension/development - Model integration and coupling - Global |
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Last Modified: 3/16/2026 10:39:15 AM
