GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7736 |
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"Quantifying Climate-Induced Migration and Displacement: A Global CGE Analysis" Authors: Ishinabe, Nagisa, Uris Lantz Baldos and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Abstract Climate change is expected to reshape global migration and displacement, yet quantitative global assessments remain scarce and fragmented. This paper develops a global CGE framework to quantify climate induced economic migration and forced displacement under alternative warming scenarios. Building on the GTAP based GMig2 model, we extend bilateral labor mobility across 103 regions to incorporate income distributions and poverty, link climate driven increases in poverty to displacement, and include international aid to compensate host countries. Climate shocks to sea level rise, agricultural productivity, and labor productivity—calibrated to the GTAP 11 Data Base and damage functions for 141 countries and 65 sectors—are imposed in a comparative static setting, with resulting changes in production, prices, wages, and poverty endogenously driving cross border movements. Scenario experiments compare cases in which displaced people are granted or denied access to destination labor markets, enabling analysis of how alternative reception and integration choices redistribute climate induced movements, alter regional labor markets and aid needs, and shift geopolitical responsibilities for hosting and assisting affected populations. The framework provides a transparent, globally consistent basis for evaluating climate–economy–migration linkages, generating spatially explicit origin–destination matrices for 103×103 region pairs that capture both economic migration and displacement routed along observed migration corridors. It thus offers a policy relevant tool for designing international protection regimes and burden sharing arrangements, and for integrating migration considerations into climate and development strategies at national, regional, and global levels. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Environmental policies - Sustainable development - Labor market issues - Migration - Model extension/development - Global |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7736 (239.1 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
