GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7756 |
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"Advancing Dynamic CGE with demographically driven labour markets for short-term rigidity" Authors: Samyrao, Kisshor Abstract This paper advances the GTAP-Dynamic modelling framework by introducing a demographically grounded representation of labour mobility and a functionally differentiated land system to better capture medium-run adjustment frictions. Standard CGE models implicitly assume high labour mobility and homogeneous land, limiting their ability to analyse sector-specific bottlenecks, transitional wage pressures, and demographic constraints. To address these limitations, the study develops a ten-type labour market system—the Muscle Labour System (MLS)—that decomposes conventional skilled and unskilled labour into sector-specific incumbent labour groups and a single, highly mobile “multidisciplinary” labour type representing young and flexible entrants. The initial share of this mobile labour type, as well as its growth over time, is endogenously linked to each region’s population age structure, embedding demographic realities directly into medium-run labour reallocation dynamics. Youthful economies therefore adjust more quickly to shocks, while ageing economies exhibit persistent sectoral rigidities, slower convergence in wages, and stronger labour shortages. Complementing this labour advancement, the paper also introduces a minimal-disruption split of agricultural land into arable and pasture components, reflecting their mutually exclusive economic uses and allowing rents to diverge when sectors face heterogeneous shocks. Together, these extensions enable GTAP-Dynamic to capture more realistic patterns of wage divergence, sector-specific labour scarcity, demographic constraints on structural transformation, and land-use bottlenecks. The resulting framework provides a tractable yet substantially enriched tool for analysing medium-term policy questions in trade, labour markets, industrial strategy, and climate-linked land transitions—questions that are beyond the reach of existing GTAP labour and land treatments. |
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- Demographics - Economic growth - Labor market issues - Migration - Economic geography - Advances in quantitative methods - Baseline development - Dynamic modeling - Asia (East) - Global |
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Public Access  Paper (1.1 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
