GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7764 |
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"Regional Impacts of Iron Ore Production Trajectories in Minas Gerais (Brazil): Evidence from a Dynamic CGE Model" Authors: Souza, Gessica Abstract This paper assesses the long-run regional economic impacts of alternative iron ore production trajectories in Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a dynamic, bottom-up interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with thirteen Intermediate Geographic Regions (RGInts) plus a Rest of Brazil block and twenty-three productive sectors. Iron ore output paths are obtained from an econometric projection that decomposes Brazilian beneficiated production into export and domestic-consumption components, the former associated with Chinese import demand and the latter with national GDP growth. The projected trajectories are introduced into the model as exogenous shocks to the activity level of iron ore extraction, and the resulting deviations from a reference path are reported for output, household consumption, employment and investment at the regional and sectoral levels. The simulations indicate that a contraction of iron ore production propagates well beyond the extractive sector, transmitted through the mineral–metallurgical chain into steel, fabricated metal products, construction and motor vehicles. Accumulated losses are concentrated in highly specialised regions such as Barbacena and in the largest producing region, Belo Horizonte, while more diversified economies absorb the shock more readily. The pattern is consistent with the regional resource-curse and economic-resilience literatures and underscores the role of productive diversification in mitigating exposure to mineral-sector shocks. |
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- Conventional energy - Other data bases and data issues - Non-competitive markets - Economic development - Dynamic modeling - Econometric methods - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7764 (1.8 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
