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GTAP Resource #7780

"Impacts of Different Spatial Resolution on Land-Use Downscaling"
Authors: Zhao, Shurui, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Koga Yamazaki and Ryo Totake


Abstract
This study examines how the spatial resolution of inputs affects land-use downscaling and environmental assessment. It compares two aggregation schemes for AIM-ALPHA outputs: a coarse 17-region mode and a finer 400-basin mode, both downscaled with AIM-PLUM from 2005 to 2100.

The results show that the 400-basin mode better preserves spatial heterogeneity from the upstream model and produces land-use patterns that agree more closely with reference data. In the base year, its global Kappa coefficient is higher than that of the 17-region mode, indicating better reproducibility. It also reproduces upstream agricultural production more accurately, because less information is lost during aggregation. By contrast, the 17-region mode smooths basin-level differences, weakening the transmission of production signals into grid-level land allocation.

Over time, differences between the two modes become larger, especially for cropland and forest. The finer-resolution basin mode generally produces more spatially dispersed land-use patterns and lower spatial autocorrelation, reflecting stronger retention of local variation. These differences also affect land-use-related CO2 emissions and biodiversity estimates. In some regions, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Southeast Asia, the two modes generate notably different Biodiversity Intactness Index values by 2100.

Overall, the study concludes that using higher-resolution inputs improves land-use downscaling, strengthens consistency with upstream model outputs, and increases the reliability of environmental impact assessments linking IAMs and ESMs.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: 1
Created: Yamazaki, K. (4/14/2026)
Updated: Yamazaki, K. (6/10/2026)
Visits: 159
- Climate change policy
- Ecosystem services and biodiversity
- Environmental policies
- Land use
- Sustainable development
- Model extension/development
- Software and modeling tools
- Global


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