GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Assessing potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences of a food system transformation. An overview of economic modelling supporting the second EAT-Lancet commission" Authors: Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Marina Sundiang, Matthew Gibson, Thais Diniz Oliveira, Felicitas Beier, Lauren Benavidez-Brouk, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Astrid Bos, Maksym Chepeliev, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Thijs De Lange, Jonathan Doelman, Shahnila Dunston, Stefan Frank, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jordan Hristov, Jonas Jägermeyr, Marta Kozicka, Marijke Kuiper, Page Kyle, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hermen Luchtenbelt, Abhijeet Mishra, Chrisoph Müller, Gerald Nelson, Amanda Palazzo, Ignacio Perez Dominguez, Alexander Popp, Ronald Sands, Marco Springmann, Elke Stehfest, Timothy Sulser, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Hans van Meijl, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Detlef Van Vuuren, Hannah H.E. van Zanten, Isabelle Weindl, Keith Wiebe, Xin Zhao and Mario Herrero Abstract The first EAT-Lancet report proposed a great food system transformation composed of a shift to a healthy diet, increased agricultural productivity and reductions in food loss and waste. This study highlighted the potential of such a food system transformation to move towards greater environmental sustainability. However, questions were raised about the health and nutritional adequacy of the recommended diet as well as the socioeconomic and justice implications of such a food system transformation. In response to these questions the modelling in the second EAT-Lancet report looked to explore a broader range of socioeconomic and justice implications of a food system transformation. To do this the modelling efforts in the second commission were expanded to include a multi-model ensemble composed of 10 global economic models. This ensemble ran a series of scenarios to assess the potential impacts of the original 3 EAT-Lancet transformation drivers (dietary change, reduced food loss and waste, and increased agricultural productivity), as well as a new driver of ambitious climate mitigation, with the objective of identifying potential complementarities and trade-offs between the drivers of change . This paper presents the ensemble approach and summarizes key modeling results from this effort, which are broadly consistent with results from the first EAT-Lancet report. However, the application of economic models suggests that there may be greater challenges in achieving all environmental objectives (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorous) without additional measures. This class of models also facilitated an assessment of potential price and food affordability consequences of a global shift to a healthy diet. This paper will explore these findings and highlight where there is greater agreement across the model, as well as note where substantial model uncertainty remains. focus on identifying where the models are in greater agreement and where substantial model uncertainty remains. |
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- Sustainable development - Food prices and food security - Partial and general equilibrium models - Global |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7829 (301.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
