GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7832 |
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"Backcasting and the Global Dietary Shift" Authors: Sands, Ronald Abstract It is common practice in general equilibrium modeling to use the most recent GTAP base year. However, moving the base year back in time can provide insights into model performance over historical years. In this study, we use the GTAP dataset for 2004 as a base year to simulate world agriculture through 2050 for 13 world regions. The time frame for comparison to historical data on food consumption will be from 2004 to the latest year that FAO food balances are available (2023). This provides 20 years for comparison of model output to historical data. The first point of comparison is simulated world food calories to historical FAO data in 2004, the simulation base year. This is essentially a check of base-year calibration, at the world level and for world regions. Calibration is not trivial, as it requires integrating FAO food balances into the benchmark social accounting matrix. A second point of comparison is the time path of food calories from 2004 through 2023, at the world level and for world regions. Many model parameters and assumptions affect this comparison, including the choice of consumer demand system, income elasticities of demand, and income growth. A third point of comparison is the demand in world regions for food groups. This tests the performance of the consumer demand system, and how it responds to growth in per-capita income over time. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Land use - Demographics - Economic development - Advances in quantitative methods - Baseline development - Calibration and parameter estimation - Dynamic modeling - Global |
| Attachments |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Sands GTAP 2026 paper (224.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
