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GTAP Resource #7846

"A Deep-Dive of the EAT-Lancet 2 Global Diet into European Food Systems"
Authors: Tassinari, Gianmaria and Ignacio Perez Dominguez


Abstract
Using the CAPRI model, we assess how a unilateral EU adoption of the EAT–Lancet 2.0 transition would affect agricultural markets and greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. We evaluate four measures—healthier diets, carbon pricing, reduced food loss and waste, and productivity gains—individually and as a combined package. Carbon pricing yields the largest reduction in EU emissions, but raises food prices and shifts production and emissions to non-EU regions. Dietary change and lower food waste achieve smaller mitigation gains, while improving affordability and limiting these spillovers. The combined package provides the most balanced outcome: EU agricultural emissions decline substantially, and lower demand partly offsets the food-price increases induced by carbon pricing. However, EU production still falls and part of it is displaced abroad. These results show that unilateral EU action reshapes global markets and can either reduce or increase emissions outside Europe. Carbon pricing alone risks exporting environmental pressures, whereas combined supply- and demand-side measures limit them.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Tassinari, G. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Tassinari, G. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 16
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Environmental policies
- Trade and the environment
- Food prices and food security


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Special Instructions
Working paper, very early draft under development.


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