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GTAP Resource #7922

"Estimating the Cost of Appeasing China: Taiwan’s Exclusion from the RCEP"
Authors: Kuo, Jeffrey


Abstract
This article uses economic modeling to determine whether RCEP members are facing ongoing costs by excluding Taiwan from the existing trade bloc. It will do this by estimating the net change to RCEP members’ consumer welfare and gross domestic product (GDP) were Taiwan suddenly allowed to join RCEP. The study will also predict the economic impacts on Taiwan’s simulated RCEP membership on four other targets: Taiwan, China, the United States, and the rest of the world. While the United States is not a member of RCEP, the ripple effects of reduced trade barriers between Taiwan and RCEP economies will have an impact on the United States’ trade in the Indo-Pacific. Given that the United States is a key geopolitical supporter of Taiwan, the question of whether Taiwan’s theoretical RCEP membership would impact the US economy is relevant. While Washington may have geopolitical reasons for supporting or opposing Taiwan’s RCEP membership, there is little understanding regarding whether the United States would face economic costs should Taiwan join.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: Other CGE Application
Status: Published
By/In: Global Taiwan Brief, 10(17), pp 4-7, 2025
Date: 2025
Version: 1
Created: Kuo, J. (7/24/2026)
Updated: Batta, G. (7/24/2026)
Visits: 73
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Asia (East)


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  pdf File format GTAP Resource 7922  (763.5 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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Special Instructions
https://globaltaiwan.org/2025/09/estimating-the-cost-of-appeasing-china/


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