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GTAP Resource #3897

"Cooperation vs. non cooperation in the multilateral trading system: the impact on poverty and inequality in developing countries"
by Bouët, Antoine, Carmen Estrades and David Laborde

The objective of this paper is to use the new version of MIRAGE, MIRAGE_HH (MIRAGE-Households; see Bouet, Estrades and Laborde 2012), to evaluate the potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on households welfare, poverty and inequality in developing countries. MIRAGE_HH is a version of the MIRAGE model of the world economy which includes households heterogeneity in order to studying the impact of trade reforms on real income and welfare at the household level. In six developing countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, Tanzania, Uruguay and Vietnam), the model disaggregates the representative household into up to 80-120 households by country. The sources of income and consumption structure reflect disaggregated statistical information coming from households surveys. The new model better captures the behavior of the public agent in terms of revenues collected and in terms of expenditures. Various public sector closures are available. Inter-households private transfers are endogenized according to a "tempered altruism/ enlightened self interest" assumption (Lucas and Stark, 1985). This new version of MIRAGE allows studying the impact of various policy shocks and identifying which households are expected to win, which households are expected to lose and why, while taking into account the reaction of households to these shocks in an integrated and consistent framework. We study the impact of a potential Doha Development Agenda, according to the most recent official guidelines. This multilateral trade reform is implemented at the tariff line level. In order to illustrate the benefits of multilateral cooperation, we also evaluate the potential impact of a protectionist shock applied to the world economy. In order to make this shock realistic we calculate the liberalization implemented worldwide during the last 15 years and we implement a return to this level of protectionism throughout the world taking into account current bound import duties. We calculate the ...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Version: Very preliminary
Created: Bouët, A. (4/30/2012)
Updated: Bouët, A. (4/30/2012)
Visits: 2,657
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Dynamic modeling

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