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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #7532

"Economy-wide effects of VAT-free chicken meat in South Africa: Implications for food security"
by Zondo, Bhekani, Andrea El Meligi, Dorothee Flaig, Phelelani Sibiya, Ricardo Smith, Nokuthula Khulu, Kayalethu Sotsha and Solly Molepo


Abstract
The broiler industry is the largest contributor to South Africa’s agricultural sector, playing a critical role in food security by providing an affordable protein source, especially for low-income households. Despite increased domestic production, the poultry industry continues to face sustainability and competitiveness challenges due to rising input costs, disease outbreaks, and price volatility, which have contributed to rising poultry meat prices and affordability constraints. This study investigates the economy-wide effects of removing Value Added Tax (VAT) on poultry meat in South Africa, a measure increasingly advocated to support food security and relieve financial pressure on vulnerable households. Using the Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic development, Resources and Agriculture (DEMETRA), calibrated to a disaggregated 2019 South African Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), the study simulates policy scenarios including the removal of VAT on poultry and potential fiscal compensation mechanisms. Results are expected to show the impact of VAT removal on poultry consumption, household welfare, particularly among low-income groups, industry performance, and government revenue. The findings aim to inform tax and food security policy by highlighting the trade-offs between enhancing affordability of essential food items and maintaining fiscal sustainability in a constrained economic environment.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2025 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 28th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kigali, Rwanda)
Date:
Version:
Created: Zondo, B. (4/15/2025)
Updated: Zondo, B. (4/15/2025)
Visits: 18
- Other data bases and data issues
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Africa (Southern)


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