GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7710 |
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"Economic Implications of a Global Coal Power and Production Phase-Out – A CGE-Based Analysis" by Peng, Xiujian and Sam Marginson Abstract This paper examines the economic and environmental impacts of phasing out coal-fired power generation and coal production using the global GTAP-Power model. We simulate three scenarios: (i) phasing out coal-fired power in the top 20 coal-consuming regions, (ii) extending coal power constraints to all regions to limit carbon leakage, and (iii) combining demand-side measures with a 90% reduction in coal production in the top 17 coal-producing regions. The results show that the global economic costs of coal phase-out are modest, with real GDP declining by about 0.7% under demand-side measures and 1.7% when supply-side controls are included. However, impacts vary significantly across countries. Coal-dependent and exporting economies—such as Mongolia, Australia, and Indonesia—experience larger losses, while some countries benefit from increased renewable energy exports. Electricity prices rise in most regions due to the higher costs of replacing coal with alternative energy sources. From an environmental perspective, phasing out coal-fired power reduces global CO2 emissions by over 20%, while combining demand- and supply-side policies increases reductions to nearly 40%. These findings highlight the trade-off between economic costs and environmental benefits and underscore the importance of revenue recycling, international support, and investment in renewable energy to ensure a cost-effective and equitable energy transition. |
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- Climate change policy - Conventional energy - Environmental policies - Renewable energy - Economic growth - Advances in quantitative methods - Global |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7710 (1.9 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/10/2026 2:17:55 PM
