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GTAP Resource #7781

"Integrating a Global CGE Model with a Terrestrial Nitrogen Flow Model for Assessing Climate Policy Impacts on Agriculture"
Authors: Osugi, Yuto, Koga Yamazaki, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa and Kazuya Nishina


Abstract
Human activities have caused an excess of reactive nitrogen in Earth systems, with increasingly apparent adverse effects on ecosystems and human health. Because the agriculture and land-use sector is a major source of reactive nitrogen, changes in land use and agricultural management strongly influence nitrogen flows, including inputs, gaseous emissions, and leaching. Evaluating how future changes in human activities and policy responses affect these flows requires linking integrated assessment models with process-based nitrogen flow models and assessing future nitrogen flows within an integrated framework. However, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework lacks a module that represents terrestrial nitrogen flows at the grid scale. This study therefore developed a new grid-based terrestrial nitrogen flow model within this framework, examined its validity, and presented future nitrogen flows to provide a basis for discussing nitrogen-related issues under mitigation scenarios. The results show that the model estimated agricultural soil emissions of ammonia (NH3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the base year 2010 at levels comparable to existing global emission inventories, indicating that it reproduces these emissions reasonably well at the global scale. By contrast, nitrogen leaching from agricultural land to soils and water bodies was estimated to be 5–46 Tg N yr-1 higher than in several previous studies. Given uncertainties in the parameters used to estimate nitrogen leaching in both this study and earlier work, as well as differences in estimation methods, this discrepancy does not appear to undermine model validity, although the leaching process could be improved through more detailed formulation. The framework developed in this study, including the terrestrial nitrogen flow model, provides a foundation for research on climate change, nitrogen cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and land use.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: 1
Created: Osugi, Y. (4/14/2026)
Updated: Osugi, Y. (4/14/2026)
Visits: 35
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Sustainable development
- Model integration and coupling


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