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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6034

"Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on the Mongolian Economy"
by Tserendorj, Oyunzul, Tsolmon Baatarzorig, Ragchaasuren Galindev, Delgermaa Begz, Nyambaatar Batbayar and Unurjargal Davaa


Abstract
The Government of Mongolia began implementing an IMF program under the Extended Fund Facility agreement (EFF) in May 2017. Under the program, the government has decreased expenditures and increased taxes to achieve debt sustainability via fiscal consolidation and stable growth. At the same time, the government has faced challenges because of its commitment of fiscal consolidation to the IMF: the rising price of fuel and its own fuel-subsidy policies. We used the PEP standard static CGE model to examine the impact of fiscal consolidation on the Mongolian economy under various conditions. Moreover, we used a poverty (microsimulation) model to analyze those impacts at a household level. Our analysis of the impact of fiscal consolidation under pessimistic and optimistic mineral-commodity-price scenarios showed that Mongolia’s economy was closely tied to international commodity prices. Our examination of the government’s alternative policies on fuel subsidies in an environment of fiscal consolidation demonstrated that the effect of increased fuel prices on the economy depended upon government fuel-subsidy policy.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2020 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Virtual Conference)
Date: 2019
Version:
Created: Tserendorj, O. (4/14/2020)
Updated: Tserendorj, O. (6/10/2020)
Visits: 1,375
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Software and modeling tools
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Economic growth
- Asia (East)


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