GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7859 |
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"LAND-USE COMPETITION AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE FOR SAF IN BRAZIL" Authors: Lucas Rodrigues Dias, Igor, Marcelo Pereira Da Cunha, Matheus Souza Lacerda, Pedro Gilberto Cavalcante Filho, Danilo Garofalo, Tarik Marques Do Prado Tanure and Angelo Gurgel Abstract The growing urgency to mitigate climate change has intensified efforts to decarbonize the transport sector, with aviation representing one of its most challenging segments due to its dependence on high energy-density liquid fuels. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) have emerged as a key mitigation strategy, supported by international and national initiatives such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and Brazil’s ProBioQAV program. This study employs a multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the GTAP-AEZ v.11 and implemented in the GAMS/MPSGE framework, to assess the economy-wide and environmental impacts of SAF expansion in Brazil. The model incorporates detailed representations of agro-ecological zones, second-crop corn (multicropping) systems, and multiple SAF production pathways, including hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from soybean oil and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) routes from corn and sugarcane ethanol. The analysis is conducted under the premise that Brazil’s aviation decarbonization commitments by 2037, considering the combined targets of CORSIA and ProBioQAV, can be achieved exclusively through SAF deployment. These policies correspond to an estimated emissions reduction of 8.6 Mt CO2eq and a SAF demand ranging from 2.9 to 9.1 million cubic meters (Mm³). Two policy scenarios are evaluated: a business-as-usual expansion of all SAF pathways and an optimized scenario in which technological routes compete for resources and market share, endogenously revealing the economically and environmentally preferred configuration while accounting for indirect land-use change (ILUC). Overall, the study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing SAF deployment in agriculture-based economies and offers insights to support evidence-based policymaking for sustainable aviation. |
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- Climate change policy - Environmental policies - Land use - Renewable energy - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Technological change - Transportation - Model extension/development - Partial and general equilibrium models - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7859 (545.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
